China's National Bureau of Statistics reported on 17 August that July retail sales of cosmetics at enterprises above the designated size reached 28.5 billion yuan, up 6.8% year on year, while household goods reached 65.2 billion yuan, up 1.8%. Both categories grew; cosmetics grew faster, household goods sold more.

Putting July back into the last four months

On the same statistical basis, monthly cosmetics retail sales from April to July were 32.6 billion, 44.9 billion, 45.6 billion and 28.5 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 4.7%, 2.5%, 12.6% and 6.8%. Household goods over the same months were 64.8 billion, 72.6 billion, 78.6 billion and 65.2 billion yuan, growing 3.5%, 1.6%, 3.9% and 1.8%. The four monthly figures come from four separate NBS releases, dated 18 May, 16 June, 15 July and 17 August, each carrying the same category table and notes.

Across those four months the monthly growth rate for cosmetics swung between 2.5% and 12.6%, a range of more than 10 percentage points; household goods moved between 1.6% and 3.9%, under 2.5 percentage points. Both categories peaked in June and both fell back in July, cosmetics from 45.6 billion to 28.5 billion yuan and household goods from 78.6 billion to 65.2 billion yuan.

Measured in sales value rather than growth rate, July was the lowest of the four months for cosmetics, below even the April figure of 32.6 billion yuan, while household goods in July stayed close to their April level. A category can post the higher growth rate and the lower sales value in the same month, because the rate is measured against the same month a year earlier and the value is not.

A monthly gap and a cumulative gap answer different questions

The two categories were 5.0 percentage points apart in July. Set against the series, that is not the widest gap of the four months — June stood at 8.7 points — and it does not describe a widening trend, since May's gap was 0.9 points and April's 1.2.

On a cumulative basis, January to July cosmetics retail sales came to 272.3 billion yuan, up 6.3%, and household goods to 497.3 billion yuan, up 4.1%, a gap of 2.2 percentage points, narrower than the June and July gaps and wider than those of April and May. The cumulative figure smooths the monthly swing, and the two views answer separate questions: how far apart the categories were in a given month, and how far apart they are for the year so far.

Statistical scope and how the growth is priced

The category data covers enterprises above the designated size, defined by the Bureau as wholesale enterprises (units) with annual principal business revenue of 20 million yuan or more, retail enterprises (units) at 5 million yuan or more, and accommodation and catering enterprises (units) at 2 million yuan or more. It is not the total category sales of all business entities, and its coverage differs from that of total retail sales of consumer goods, so the two should not be set side by side.

The official notes also state that these growth rates are nominal and are not adjusted for price. A change in sales value and a change in volume are therefore separate matters: the same positive figure may come from higher volume or from higher prices, and the category table does not distinguish between them.

What the data offers, and what it does not

For raw-material suppliers serving the personal care chain, the table provides two coordinates on the downstream market: sales scale and year-on-year pace. The four-month series shows that monthly growth for cosmetics is itself volatile, so taking any single month as representative of the category's performance for the year leads to very different conclusions.

What the Bureau publishes is category retail data. It carries no information on raw-material demand, brand production planning or channel restocking, and those stages do not coincide in time with retail sales at the counter.